The hottest stock market, property market, steel m

The stock market, real estate market, steel market and paper market are smashing together, and the paper price will go this way in the future

release date: Source: packaging zone editor: Yu Jia browsing times: 1910 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: in recent days, looking at China, the economic data has been in full swing, but the stock market has plummeted one after another, causing 3trillion wealth to disappear, and the monetary tightening has increased the risk of high-priced housing falling into the hands of real estate speculators, Although the 65 trillion fixed investment plan is in a good situation, it can not stop the sharp decline of steel, and it is difficult for paper enterprises with concentrated production capacity to unite to raise the depressed paper price

[China Packaging News] in recent days, looking at China, the economic data are all red, but the stock market has fallen one after another, leading to the disappearance of 3trillion wealth. The monetary tightening has increased the risk of high-priced housing falling into the hands of real estate speculators. Although the 65trillion fixed investment plan is in a good situation, it can not stop the sharp decline of steel, and it is difficult for paper enterprises with concentrated production capacity to raise the depressed paper price

the property market, the stock market, the steel market and the paper market hit the market together, which is an extremely rare phenomenon in the past 40 years of reform and opening up, and also makes people in the paper packaging industry begin to think carefully about the future trend of paper prices

yesterday, more than 70 paper-making enterprises in Fuyang City, Hangzhou stopped gas supply and production. The largest environmental storm in North China led to the closure of a large number of paper industries. At the same time, the three events that affected the supply of base paper, including the national adoption of the implementation plan on Banning the entry of foreign garbage and promoting the reform of solid waste import management system, suddenly amplified the risk of sharp rise and fall in paper prices that Bao was worried about the day before yesterday

since yesterday, the sluggish paper market has rapidly warmed up, and many orders from tertiary carton factories and secondary factories have been activated. While some paper mills and paperboard factories continue to play with last year's routine and begin to restrict orders

yesterday afternoon, the national waste market made a rapid response, and the national waste, which has fallen for many days in a row, welcomed great benefits. The paper mills in East China and South China have raised the price of national waste one after another. According to the 99 waste paper news, Shandong Dongying Huatai, Shandong Changle century sunshine paper, Jiangsu Yancheng Shuangsheng paper and Zhejiang Taizhou forest all increased by 50 yuan/ton. The book paper of Shandong Zaozhuang China Resources Paper Co., Ltd. was increased by 100 yuan/ton. In southern China, Dongguan Shuangzhou, Foshan Jinsheng, Guangdong Jiangmen Qiaoyu and Wanlida paper industries have raised paper prices slightly

various signs show that the expectation of paper price rise has been significantly strengthened

for the next wave of paper price trend, the predictions of some industry media are different. China printing carton believes that the paper price will rise sharply in May, while China good packaging believes that, but most industry insiders are still not optimistic about the future market, because the myth of paper price rise is afraid to be broken. In Bao's view, there are too many factors affecting the trend of paper prices, and they have gone beyond the scope of supply and demand. Moreover, a cruel fact has proved that the paper market can no longer be leveraged by the practice of paper mill shutdown or joint price rise alone. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the paper price will rise or fall next

generally speaking, from today to October, there is a risk of sharp rise and fall in paper prices, but it will be strongly interfered by non market factors, resulting in more complex and distorted paper market, and may also lay hidden dangers for the sharp fluctuations in paper prices at the end of the year. The reasons are as follows:

1. The mentality of paper mills and even cardboard mills to bid up prices will always exist, and the next "the Belt and Road summit" and the 19th national congress will change the supply pattern of the paper industry. Coupled with the inherent buying or not buying mentality of downstream paper packaging and printing enterprises, paper prices are difficult to stabilize

2. In the next five months, due to the shutdown of enterprises and the large increase of invisible unemployment caused by housing loans, car loans and environmental protection, the market demand dominated by FMCG packaging and e-commerce packaging will shrink at an incredible speed

3. The current paper price is not low. The natural color packaging paper of first-line brands is generally above 4000, and the white packaging paper is still high. However, due to the shrinking consumption, brands are less and less able to bear the price rise of cartons, which will force a large number of brands to reduce the consumption of cartons. For example, e-commerce providers such as jd.com, tmall.com and Suning are trying to reduce the consumption of cartons by recycling and reusing them and changing them to plastic turnover boxes

but smaller than PA and POM. 4. In addition, the vigorous development of paper plastic packaging, which completely ignores the papermaking link, will also have a new impact on the market demand of packaging paper

5. Finally, in this paper market distorted by various non market factors, human intervention and policy incentives will become more and more powerful in the future. Before the 19th CPC National Congress, the sharp rise in the price of base paper is likely to attract the attention and pressure of the government

if the time span is extended to more than half a year and less than one year, the rise and fall of base paper will be determined by the following factors (see the table below)

it is not difficult to see that domestic demand has shrunk more than everyone expected and the 200trillion super net weight (kg): 1800 coins hanging overhead will be the two key factors causing the violent volatility of paper prices

crisis, crisis is organic. The severe economic situation may force the state to reduce the tax burden on enterprises, reduce government expenditure, vigorously develop the private economy, and speed up the promotion of new agriculture, so that the papermaking and packaging printing industry will not fall rapidly. After all, it is unlikely that the extreme situation of wrapping paper, which was rarely seen during the cultural revolution, will occur